Dispute Database / zelenskyy-suit
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2025-07 · $237.0M ($237M at final resolution (reports range $160–242M)) · status: resolved
What happened
Zelenskyy wore a black suit-style ensemble at the June 2025 NATO summit; menswear press called it a suit. An initial 'Yes' was disputed and flipped; UMA finalized 'No' citing lack of 'credible reporting consensus.' Top-10 UMA wallets ≈30% of the vote.
Resolution outcome
Resolved No after multiple UMA rounds; no refunds; the reference case for token-weighted oracle criticism.
The drafting lesson
'Suit' was never defined. A $237M market settled on a tailoring debate.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.