Dispute Database / ukraine-minerals
Ukraine agrees to Trump mineral deal before April?
Polymarket Oracle manipulation · 2025-03 · $7.0M · status: resolved
What happened
With no deal signed, a whale deployed ~5M UMA tokens across three accounts (~25% of round voting power) to force a premature 'Yes.' Odds jumped 9%→100% in a day. Polymarket called it 'unprecedented' but 'not a market failure' — no refunds.
Resolution outcome
Resolved Yes (incorrectly); no refunds; UMA monitoring changes announced.
The drafting lesson
The oracle itself is an attack surface. Adjudication risk is scored separately in the RuleScore rubric.
Failure type — Oracle manipulation: Token-weighted oracle voting is captured or steered by economically interested whales.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.