Dispute Database / trudeau-meeting
Will Biden meet with Trudeau? (source rule)
Kalshi Source dependence · 2025-01 · notional unreported · status: resolved
What happened
Biden met Trudeau — including a televised handshake — but the market resolved No because the meeting wasn't reported by the two specific news sources designated in the rules. Bloomberg Businessweek made it the marquee example of resolution divorced from observable reality.
Resolution outcome
Resolved No; Yes holders lost despite the event visibly occurring.
The drafting lesson
Two-source verification requirements turn markets into bets on editorial calendars.
Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.