Dispute Database / tiktok-ban
TikTok banned in the US before May 2025?
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2025-01 · $120.0M · status: resolved
What happened
After SCOTUS upheld the divest-or-ban law, TikTok voluntarily went dark ~14 hours and the market resolved Yes — though the app returned a day later and was never removed for most users. Critics said the standard UMA escalation was effectively bypassed.
Resolution outcome
Resolved Yes; petitions and 'scam' accusations; no reversal.
The drafting lesson
'Ban' meant statute-in-force to some, app-goes-away to others. Definitions decide nine-figure outcomes.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.