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Dispute Database / strategy-btc

Strategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?

Polymarket Disclosure timing · 2026-06 · $85.0M ($60M+ (Defiant) to $85M (wider event tally)) · status: resolved

What happened

Strategy's 8-K (filed June 1) disclosed 32 BTC sold May 26–31 — inside the window — but the disclosure landed after the 11:59 PM ET May 31 cutoff. Polymarket ruled 'confirmation achieved outside of the market's timeframe does not qualify.' Two 'No' proposals were disputed to a UMA token vote.

Resolution outcome

Resolved No via UMA DVM (98.6% of 607 voters); four wallets out-weighed the entire Yes side >25x.

The drafting lesson

Event-time vs disclosure-time is the sharpest timing trap in rules language. RuleScore checks which clock a market runs on.

Failure type — Disclosure timing: The event happened, but confirmation landed outside the market window — or the window itself was read in conflicting ways.

Sources

Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.