Dispute Database / sanders-greensboro
Bernie Sanders rally mention markets (Greensboro)
Kalshi Source dependence · 2026-02 · $3.6M · status: resolved
What happened
Sanders said the strike words — attendee videos confirm — but the rally was closed to mainstream press, and Kalshi's rules required verification by named outlets (NYT, AP, Reuters…). None covered it. Every contract graded No despite ~90% Yes pricing.
Resolution outcome
All resolved No; Kalshi adjusted future mention-market language.
The drafting lesson
When resolution requires named sources, the market is pricing press logistics, not the event.
Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.