Dispute Database / polymarket-live
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2025-12 · $59.0M · status: resolved
What happened
Polymarket soft-launched its regulated US venue in November 2025 to a small tester group. Traders fought over whether a gated beta met 'go live'; UMA holders resolved Yes while most of the public had no access — the platform's own oracle ruling on the platform's own milestone.
Resolution outcome
Resolved Yes; cited in the April 2026 Blumenthal letter to the CFTC.
The drafting lesson
Self-referential markets concentrate every conflict of interest in one place.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.