Dispute Database / oscars-viewership
2025 Oscars viewership above 19.5M?
Kalshi Scalar carve-out · 2025-03 · notional unreported · status: resolved
What happened
Kalshi settled on the initial 18M viewership figure → No. Final revised figures: 19.7M — across the threshold — days later. The first-print rule ('revisions after expiration not considered') controlled.
Resolution outcome
Stood at No. Kalshi: 'We correctly resolved the market,' conceding it 'did not capture the spirit.'
The drafting lesson
First-print rules are defensible but must be priced. RuleScore flags revision-prone data sources.
Failure type — Scalar carve-out: Numeric thresholds, rounding, first-print-vs-revision, and boundary handling. The number moves after settlement, or the boundary itself is ambiguous.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.