Dispute Database / melania-mute
Melania AI-event mention markets (the muted 32 seconds)
Kalshi Source dependence · 2026-01 · notional unreported · status: resolved
What happened
The first 32 seconds of the address were muted to the audience by a technical error; she said the strike words during the muted segment — confirmed by the later-published full video and prepared remarks. Kalshi resolved No because the live feed didn't carry the words.
Resolution outcome
Resolved No.
The drafting lesson
When the 'source of record' is a live feed, transmission glitches become settlement events.
Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.