Dispute Database / khamenei-poly
Khamenei out by February 28 (Polymarket twin)
Polymarket Source dependence · 2026-03 · $529.0M (>$529M across related Iran markets since Dec 2025) · status: resolved
What happened
Polymarket's parallel contract was proposed 'Yes' twice and disputed twice through UMA after the strikes, hinging on whether Khamenei was 'removed from power' by deadline. Polymarket added a mid-flight note that the market could stay open until 'a consensus of credible reporting' emerged.
Resolution outcome
Multiple UMA dispute rounds; final review amid reporting ambiguity.
The drafting lesson
'Consensus of credible reporting' is not a resolution source — it is a debate. Twin markets on the same fact diverged across venues.
Failure type — Source dependence: Resolution hinges on specific named sources reporting (or failing to report) an observable fact. The world and the source diverge — the source wins.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.