Dispute Database / hezbollah-ceasefire
Israel × Hezbollah ceasefire extended by April 26?
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2026-04 · $20.9M · status: resolved
What happened
Criteria required confirmation 'from both governments' OR 'overwhelming media consensus.' Hezbollah is not a government (path one unsatisfiable), Lebanon never confirmed, the IDF said no effective cessation — yet the proposer used the media-consensus fallback.
Resolution outcome
Resolved Yes after 2 disputes — the same voter set reading mirrored criteria in the opposite direction vs the Iran market.
The drafting lesson
Symmetric markets, asymmetric readings: identical clause structures resolved opposite ways three days apart.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.