Dispute Database / conflict-ends-chain
Iran conflict 'ends by' chain (4 markets)
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2026-05 · $85.7M · status: resolved
What happened
All four 'conflict ends by [date]' markets resolved Yes with 2 UMA disputes each, on the theory that the April 7 ceasefire announcement constituted 'conflict ends' — even for May/June dates after the extension market had settled No.
Resolution outcome
All Yes after 2 disputes each (gamma-API-verified by an affiliate investigation).
The drafting lesson
Chained date-markets on one vague predicate multiply a single ambiguity across every expiry.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.