Dispute Database / astronomer-divorce
Astronomer kiss-cam complex — divorce market
Polymarket Definitional vagueness · 2025-08 · $7.0M (~$7M across the ouster complex (Polymarket + Kalshi)) · status: resolved
What happened
The ouster markets resolved cleanly Yes when the CEO resigned. The follow-on market required both executives to 'announce divorces' by Aug 31 — then reporting indicated one may already have been unmarried/divorcing when the market was created, forcing a mid-stream rules clarification.
Resolution outcome
Ouster: Yes, undisputed. Divorce market: required clarification of resolution conditions mid-flight.
The drafting lesson
Markets written in a news cycle inherit the news cycle's unverified premises.
Failure type — Definitional vagueness: A key term ('suit', 'ban', 'invasion', 'go live') is undefined or defined differently than traders assumed.
Sources
Verification-log discipline: every case in this database carries published sources with dates; nothing is graded from memory.